Is Vettel only lucky? And Alonso’s championship chances…

Is Sebastian Vettel a balloon?

Sebastian Vettel, after dropping back to the end of the grid because of the big problem he had on Saturday, was either going to prove wrong the ones who criticized him for being a sponger and so lucky or was going to justify them by not being able to make the expected climb on Sunday. He managed to rise up to 11th at the first stint of the race thanks to some overtaking maneuvers and some accidents and then after the contact with Bruno Senna and with the good timing of the Safety Car he made his pit stop and dropped back to the last place again.

Afterwards, with consistent laps and a bit with the help of the second period of the Safety Car he improved. In the meantime, he made some risky overtakes too. Starting from the 24. place, having two pit stops and finishing 3rd isn’t something that a sponger can do. If the same performance had come from Alonso or Lewis Hamilton, today all the web sites, Twitter, the forums would have praised them exceedingly and yes they already would have deserved this too. In short what I want to say is that Vettel is a bit prejudiced. Even after the success of yesterday, it is ridiculous not to put him within the exceptional drivers. Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s…

I need to add one point. Of course, Vettel made the performance of yesterday with his 4 consecutive race winner perfect car with new gearbox and gear ratios. There were two Safety Car periods that helped him. What he achieved is simply not making mistakes and sometimes taking risks. I mean, actually he didn’t do a Kimi Raikkonen/Suzuka 2005, that’s true, but not making mistakes while climbing from down to top is a success too. To understand, having a look at his team mate is enough…

Vettel deserves a big praise with the attack he made on Button. Button said after the race that he hasn’t expected Vettel to make this attack. So, even the huge experienced Button didn’t believe that Vettel was going to take that risk hence they turned the curve with a wheel-to-wheel battle.

Alonso’s championship chance…

There are only two races left in the title battle and Alonso’s hope for the championship began to decrease gradually. Yes, he decreased the gap from 13 to 10 after yesterday’s result, he still says that he is going to fight but when we come to the real world we see that it isn’t that easy. Alonso must take a win for the championship, in this article I am going to explain why it is necessary with the mathematical calculation.

At the moment, there is a 10 points’ gap between Vettel and Alonso. Alonso must take a win and at the the following race either he must take the win again or if he can’t, then he must put at least 2 places difference between him and Vettel. So, if he finishes 2nd then Vettel must be 4th. Otherwise, Vettel will be the champion by having had more wins.

If he can’t win any of the races left, then Vettel must not win the races and Alonso must put in total 5 places gap to Vettel, and one of these must be at least 4th place. For example, in both races even if Vettel finishes 8th and Alonso 5th Vettel still will be the champion.
As seen, what Alonso must do is obviously very difficult with mathematical calculations. Ferrari have two chances, they are; a) Vettel’s DNF with a mechanical failure or accident or b) with a mistake finishing out of the points. It seems RB8, which has a tremendous speed to have a podium even starting last, will face no problems except DNF…

It is not logical that Ferrari will gain 0.6-0.7 secs in 15 days. Therefore, Alonso doesn’t have anything to do but wait and push hard.
Of course I need to add this, If Ferrari can manage to carry the championship competition to Brazil with a 5-8 points gap, I believe that Alonso’s chances will double. Why?

1. Brazil has always been a circuit to have rain surprise in pocket. As we all know, Ferrari’s exceptionally fast in rain. Rain also opens new pages in terms of different strategies. Within a minute, all of Vettel’s advantage may fly away.
2. In Brazil Ferrari and Massa will be extra-motivated, if Alonso can have a fast car, it isn’t a far possibility that Massa will have 2nd place and make the help of the year to his team mate.
3. In Brazil Fernando Alonso is very very fast. Except 2009 (he had DNF) and 2001 while he was racing with Minardi, Alonso had 6 podiums out of the 9 races and he was 4th in remaining three races.

To summarize, to be able to continue the claim on title for Ferrari and Alonso, Alonso either must win in Austin or must finish two places higher than Vettel. Otherwise, Brasil may become a touristic trip with an unrealistic goal even if mathematically the chance goes on.

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