Equality of drivers in Ferrari: An Oz GP analysis

Everybody smiles at Ferrari after having made one of the best season opening in the recent years. The team was almost invisible in 2011 and started last year 1.5 secs. off the pace. Now, they are finally at the front of the grid from the first race in last 3 years. Thus, this gives confidence to everyone at the team. Actually, my reason to write this article is to evaluate what happened at the Australian GP and analyze Ferrari a little bit.

Felipe Massa, after having experienced a nightmare season in 2011, then showed a poor performance at the first half of the season of 2012. At such a period while everybody thought that the team should send him, team backed him and Massa proved them right with his performance afterwards. By the way, I would like to declare one more time that I see Massa as “co-champion” with Hamilton because of his performance and result during the 2008 season. Last year there were 6.5 champions on the grid not 6, and this year there are 5.5 champions not 5. Massa came back at the second half of the 2012 season and started this year very strong.

In Melbourne, he managed to pass Alonso at the qualifying despite only with a banker and he managed to stay ahead of Alonso until the first pit stops. The driver who would come to the pit lane first would be actually the supported one at that moment as Vettel had already come to the pits and he could have stayed in front of the two Ferraris lapping with the new tyres. Massa came to the pits and he really came out in front of Alonso. Until this moment, there was nothing against Massa. While the second pit stops were expected to be around on the laps 24-25, suddenly Alonso was called to the pits at lap 20. For sure, this totally unexpected move must have had something to do with Sutil holding up the front group. But afterwards we saw that the main goal of this move was to make Alonso stay ahead of his rivals at the front after the 2^nd pit stops. After seeing this; the wise pit walls of Red Bull and Force India called their drivers to the pits but Alonso still managed to stay ahead of this two. In the meantime, Alonso’s outlap was 1.51.100, Sutil’s was 1.51.500 and Vettel’s was 1.51.700.

What about Massa? He asked the same question to the pit wall too. What’s happening, what am I going to do? He was called to the pits one lap after he asked this question and he exited the pits behind this trio. So what on earth happened that Alonso was called to the pits that early? His own decision or team’s decision?

Honestly, I think it is even absurd to ask a question about this subject. Alonso was not able to make this type of a calculation while having two rivals he needs to overtake ahead within the hurry of the race. His engineer Andrea Stella can do it but he can’t make a decision without the permission of the team management and especially without dealing with Rob Smedley.  IN SHORT IN MY OPINION IT WAS A TEAM ORDER. We were thinking up to a point that the team could see both drivers as equal but in Ferrari we saw that equality has a limit too. Yes, all the cards will not be played for Alonso yet as last year, Massa will not be used as a guinea pig, two drivers will not drive with different cars, but Alonso will be given the privilege at such strategic situations. Right or wrong, I prefer not to comment on this subject, everybody has its own right. Ferrari and Red Bull treat like this, Ferrari does it obviously, Red Bull disguises it but at the end of the day two teams favor their first drivers.

Massa declared in his statement implying that he was not happy with the situation. For me Massa’s coming back to his old form was what mattered, I want two drivers to drive under equal conditions. So we can see the answer of the “who is the faster one” question more clearly.

Alonso is already as we used to know: dedicated, fast and very ambitious! On the other hand, Massa showed a strong performance at a circuit that he normally wasn’t good in; I am looking forward to watching him at different circuits. Let the faster win!

Turkish GP returns to calendar for 2013?

Some surprising news comes from Turkey which shows a big possibility of Turkish GP return into F1 calendar by 2013.

On mid-October, the tender for Istanbulpark rent was won by İstanbul MC Racing for 5 M $ per year till 2023. However, the company did not bring the necessary tender guarantee and the tender went to second best Intercity Auto Rental company which is the biggest car rental company with over 30.000 car fillet. Now, Intercity boss Vural Ak gives their first and biggest news, return of Istanbulpark into F1 calendar.

Ak says, “I personally know Bernie Ecclestone for many years. We presented our projects for Istanbulpark to him and he was impressed. He promised to decrease his 26 M $ demand, Turkish state will pay 13.5 M $ and I will pay 5 M $ from my personal budget, so we will finish deal nearly 20 M $ per year. Bernie’s biggest problem was lack of audience, we guaranteed 50.000 spectators. We want to make a 7-years-deal for Turkish GP”

As I understood, circuit owner tries to take potential French GP’s slot June, 22-23 or on summer holiday either right after Hungarian GP August 3-4 or right before Belgium GP August 17-18. But all three dates are hard practically. June, 22-23 is after Canadian GP and Britain GP is scheduled 1 week after potential Turkish GP. It is hard in terms of logistics. The remaining two dates are logistically easier but they harm summer break. For me, the week before Spanish GP (May 3-4) is better for Turkish GP, in other words putting Turkey as European season opener. It is two weeks after Bahrain GP which is the closest Asian circuit to Europe.

It seems the owners plan to make money by having a name sponsor for Turkish GP, some circuit activities, concerts, test drives and so on.

Circuit owners aim to announce final Turkish GP decision and date during FIA 2012 General Annual Assembly (will be held in Istanbul) and FIA prize giving gala.

Oh no! Pay drivers…

On these days most of the seats for the 2013 season have been declared and we sadly see that finding a seat in Formula 1 is totally focused on the financial state of the team.

I see three groups among teams:

1. The ones that are well-financed and choose their drivers for their talents and sporting achievement.

2. The ones that financially their state is on the middle and choose their drivers first to survive and then for their talent.

3. The ones that have critical financial situation and choose their drivers to survive.

The first group consists of Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes, Lotus and Red Bull’s satellite team Toro Rosso. Thanks to not having financial problems, they choose drivers who can develop the car, can show all the potential of the car even if it is a bad car, have a future and can attract sponsors. The weakest member of this group is Lotus, but they too can pay for their both drivers’ salaries and can even be patient against Grosjean.

The second group consists of Sauber, Williams and Force India. Despite not being so brilliant financially, these teams can be thrown upon their own resources on developing the car, have a development budget (although it is much less than 1^st group teams), have a wind-tunnel.  They have a strong basis, while choosing the driver who can bring sponsors, they have the luxury to ask for talent too. These teams are points scoring teams and they need to be sensitive about collecting maximum points to make next year’s fund more. They need drivers who can make it to podium when any chance arises, or at least some first 5 finishes. The situation can be understood clearer when we remember the Williams’ race win and Sauber’s having 4 podiums this season. At this group, Maldonado helped Williams too much with multi-millions that he brought with himself, and Perez helped Sauber too much with Telmex.  They both delighted their teams too with their sporting achievements.

The third group not surprisingly consists of Caterham, Marussia and HRT. These teams only can manage survival thanks to salaries and sponsors that drivers pay and bring. While HRT is in the most critical situation and totally dependant on the sponsors,  Marussia and Caterham were in the race of development at least with an experienced driver till this year. While closing the experience gap; Caterham with Kovalainen, Marussia with Glock; they were trying to gain some economical power with their other drivers Petrov and Pic. Marussia will be able to continue next year in the same way because for the first time since the foundation of the team they managed to get the 10th place and received a fund of at least 13 million $ and relieved for Glock’s payment.  But, Caterham looks like will split the ways with Kovalainen after problem of losing the 10th place that they had received for the last two years.

Finding sponsors to make a driver race is not a new issue in Formula 1, maybe exists since the first days of the sport. We learn this from the memories of the great drivers. For example, statistically the most successful name of the sport, Michael Schumacher, joined this sport paying and thanks to his driver substitution’s not being able to race and he made the most of his only chance and linked successfully the sport. But, today’s tough economical conditions caused the teams to focus more to the profit of sponsors than talent and experience and this is a negative situation for the future of the sport. It looks like the relatively experienced drivers like Kovalainen, Kobayashi, Bruno Senna and Petrov will leave their seats next year respectively to Van der Garde, Gutierrez, Bottas and Pic.

Don’t think that I feel sad for all of them, I’m only sad for Kovalainen. I think that after the start up careers in Renault and McLaren he learned much from tough years of Caterham and this process developed his drive and he deserves better places. I’m not sorry for Kobayashi because I think he didn’t even use the 50 % of the Sauber C31’s potential of this season. I find Petrov not bad in speed but he is inconsistent, Bruno Senna-my followers know that well- I don’t find him successful at all. My followers also know that I don’t call Bruno Senna only as Senna; I don’t think he deserves to be called only with that surname at the moment. In future? We cant know. On the other hand, I look forward to Valtteri Bottas and Gutierrez and I trust both of them, I think both of them will be in the title battle within maximum 4-5 years.

In brief, it is sad to see Formula 1, the talent sport,  become materialized with economical worries , I hope either the teams get richer or the teams in this situation leaves their place to the richer ones. Otherwise, while there are 6 champions now on the grid, in the future will be 1-2 champions and the sport will continue to live with mediocre talented drivers. Who else do we have in our hands but Vettel and Hamilton when Alonso, Button and Kimi retire?

Is Vettel only lucky? And Alonso’s championship chances…

Is Sebastian Vettel a balloon?

Sebastian Vettel, after dropping back to the end of the grid because of the big problem he had on Saturday, was either going to prove wrong the ones who criticized him for being a sponger and so lucky or was going to justify them by not being able to make the expected climb on Sunday. He managed to rise up to 11th at the first stint of the race thanks to some overtaking maneuvers and some accidents and then after the contact with Bruno Senna and with the good timing of the Safety Car he made his pit stop and dropped back to the last place again.

Afterwards, with consistent laps and a bit with the help of the second period of the Safety Car he improved. In the meantime, he made some risky overtakes too. Starting from the 24. place, having two pit stops and finishing 3rd isn’t something that a sponger can do. If the same performance had come from Alonso or Lewis Hamilton, today all the web sites, Twitter, the forums would have praised them exceedingly and yes they already would have deserved this too. In short what I want to say is that Vettel is a bit prejudiced. Even after the success of yesterday, it is ridiculous not to put him within the exceptional drivers. Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s…

I need to add one point. Of course, Vettel made the performance of yesterday with his 4 consecutive race winner perfect car with new gearbox and gear ratios. There were two Safety Car periods that helped him. What he achieved is simply not making mistakes and sometimes taking risks. I mean, actually he didn’t do a Kimi Raikkonen/Suzuka 2005, that’s true, but not making mistakes while climbing from down to top is a success too. To understand, having a look at his team mate is enough…

Vettel deserves a big praise with the attack he made on Button. Button said after the race that he hasn’t expected Vettel to make this attack. So, even the huge experienced Button didn’t believe that Vettel was going to take that risk hence they turned the curve with a wheel-to-wheel battle.

Alonso’s championship chance…

There are only two races left in the title battle and Alonso’s hope for the championship began to decrease gradually. Yes, he decreased the gap from 13 to 10 after yesterday’s result, he still says that he is going to fight but when we come to the real world we see that it isn’t that easy. Alonso must take a win for the championship, in this article I am going to explain why it is necessary with the mathematical calculation.

At the moment, there is a 10 points’ gap between Vettel and Alonso. Alonso must take a win and at the the following race either he must take the win again or if he can’t, then he must put at least 2 places difference between him and Vettel. So, if he finishes 2nd then Vettel must be 4th. Otherwise, Vettel will be the champion by having had more wins.

If he can’t win any of the races left, then Vettel must not win the races and Alonso must put in total 5 places gap to Vettel, and one of these must be at least 4th place. For example, in both races even if Vettel finishes 8th and Alonso 5th Vettel still will be the champion.
As seen, what Alonso must do is obviously very difficult with mathematical calculations. Ferrari have two chances, they are; a) Vettel’s DNF with a mechanical failure or accident or b) with a mistake finishing out of the points. It seems RB8, which has a tremendous speed to have a podium even starting last, will face no problems except DNF…

It is not logical that Ferrari will gain 0.6-0.7 secs in 15 days. Therefore, Alonso doesn’t have anything to do but wait and push hard.
Of course I need to add this, If Ferrari can manage to carry the championship competition to Brazil with a 5-8 points gap, I believe that Alonso’s chances will double. Why?

1. Brazil has always been a circuit to have rain surprise in pocket. As we all know, Ferrari’s exceptionally fast in rain. Rain also opens new pages in terms of different strategies. Within a minute, all of Vettel’s advantage may fly away.
2. In Brazil Ferrari and Massa will be extra-motivated, if Alonso can have a fast car, it isn’t a far possibility that Massa will have 2nd place and make the help of the year to his team mate.
3. In Brazil Fernando Alonso is very very fast. Except 2009 (he had DNF) and 2001 while he was racing with Minardi, Alonso had 6 podiums out of the 9 races and he was 4th in remaining three races.

To summarize, to be able to continue the claim on title for Ferrari and Alonso, Alonso either must win in Austin or must finish two places higher than Vettel. Otherwise, Brasil may become a touristic trip with an unrealistic goal even if mathematically the chance goes on.

Will Vettel come to Ferrari in 2014?

Yesterday, Ferrari announced that Felipe Massa will keep his seat until the end of 2013 which also ended the biggest news resource of the season. I think every of us was enough bored about talking and wondering about this. The first part of scenario that I wrote before has become real. Ferrari left a seat empty for 2014. The biggest candidate for that seat again as i wrote is Sebastian Vettel. Everyone talks that there is already a done deal between Vettel and Ferrari from 2014. The aim of this article is to explain what this deal will bring and how likely it is.

As I told on my Twitter account today Ferrari is making their plans under the assumption “Vettel may come” not under “Vettel will come”. Can You imagine? A huge team like Ferrari holds major decisions for only the possibility of a 25 year old driver coming to team. Why? Because Sebastian Vettel is the most valuable driver of 2013-2023 era. He became double world champion at 24 and he is competing for third one at 25. So he is a very good catch for Red Bull, Ferrari and Mclaren. The team who hires him almost quarantees to compete for title. That’s why top teams dont want to let others have him. Ferrari made a pre-deal for this reason because they want to be prior in Vettel’s agenda if they decide to sign with him.

But there is a widely misunderstood point in F1 world, it is believed that deal is already done and Vettel will definitely race for Ferrari in 2014. As again I talked about this on Twitter today, the reasons which causes deal should not happen is more than the causes deal should happen. Let me tell you every of them one by one.
Let’s start with Vettel… First of all Vettel already has a deal with Red Bull which has an option for 2014 season. This means he has to stay in the team also in 2014 which depends on the results of 2011-2013 seasons. What can be the conditions? These kind of options are usually about both driver and the team performance. The worst case scenario could be “giving at least a winning car”. Team is already giving 3rd title for Vettel not just a win and it may be 4th next year. In my opinion, the so-called “option” is 100% realized. Perhaps, there is an “over success” clause in the option, which can be “driver may quit if he had at least 2 titles” which is enough ridiculous and unlikely. In short, Vettel already will have to stay at Red Bull legally.

Second; Vettel has got everything he needs within Red Bull team. A team who trusts him fully, biggest success, marketing power, money and most important asset in the team: success machine Adrian Newey. Why shall Vettel leave such a team? Under these circumstances it would be meaningless. At least until the age of 27-28. Then he can go to Ferrari to fulfill his dream of racing for Ferrari.

Third, Red Bull will lose a retired Webber next year and will they lose also Vettel? Would a 3 years champion team start a new seaon without a top driver? Obviously this would be nonsense and Red Bull would defend their right on the deal and even increase German’s salary as much as he wants. In short, RED BULL WON’T LET VETTEL GO! That’s why Horner told that Sebastian Vettel, without a shadow of doubt, will be part of the Red Bull Racing team in 2014,”. Red Bull won’t let Vettel unless they have a second Vettel, dont forget that.

Fourth, why shall Sebastian want to go to a Ferrari World where fans, mechanics, engineers and executives adore Alonso? Why wouldn’t he do this after 3-4 years to replace Alonso and be adored one? Yes, some may say he will do this to challenge Spaniard but that would be too emotional and risky decision to make such a move while there are many positive reasons to stay in Red Bull.

Let’s come to Ferrari…First and most important reason, as Montezemelo said putting Vettel and Alonso in same team is like putting two roosters in the same henhouse. Fernando is a leader driver. He has the all the qualities of his horoscope ‘Leo’. Since he has come to the team he showed well of these qualities. He made everyone fan of him, not only his garage but also the other garage’s mechanics. He spent days and months at Maranello, he carried the team in the worst and best days. It went to the point that Ferrari even told they are asking the ideas of Fernando for 2nd driver decision. All these happened because he has beaten Massa clearly. In these 3 years, no one has seen the wild face of Alonso except China 2010 (pushed Massa and got into pit) and Germany 2010 (famous Fernando is faster than you event). Let’s not live in pink dreams, Alonso does not want a team mate who is faster than him. As a pure Leo he hates to be defeated and as long as he knows there is someone at next garage who is faster than him, he shows his unpleasant acts in any every occasion. As Ferrari, would you like to bother a superstar like Alonso? At the end of the day you will have a one champion, not two. Yes, constructor championship would be sure in that case but who cares it? Who remembers if I ask who has been the Constructors Champion in 1995? But almost every F1 fan can count the World Drivers Champions of last 20 years.

Second, there is a probability that both drivers will fight and none of them would be champion like Mclaren had in 2007. If you believe that Alonso will beat Vettel easily, entomb your idea to your garden. Some people underastimate Vettel so much. As long as these two guys race together the gap will never be more than 15-20 points. In my opinion, it would actually be something like 10 points. They have some circuits where they fly and dominate separately. One of them is excellent in qualifying, the other stars in races. Yes Alonso is one step ahead of Vettel in terms of talent and experience but the difference is not so big. Please answer me, what would happen if Mclaren has focused on Alonso in 2007? Let me answer, he would quarantee his 3rd consecutive title before Brazil. Same would happen had they focused on Hamilton maybe. Under these facts, it is not logical to think Ferrari will leave his old tradition to focus on one driver.

Third, all champions in today’s grid (apart from Kimi and Button) like one-man-show. Schumacher, Alonso, Lewis and Vettel easily show their discontent as long as they are not flattered. They have done this several times. You put Alonso (who has a rich bad examples history about team mate wars) alongside Vettel who was glum after Webber’s win in Brazil where he was already World champion with 11 wins. Do you think this will work? Come on man!

For sure this is not impossible but I give a very very small percentage for this probability. My personal view is neither Vettel will want to come, nor Ferrari will take this risk. So, what will happen? Ferrari again will focus on Massa’s performance, if he will repeat a 2008 performance again, he will continue with Alonso. Otherwise, Ferrari will hire Hulkenberg and Vettel talks will end up to be opened again after Alonso’s retirement.

Metin Mete

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A few thoughts on Raikkonen, Caterham F1 team and 1st driver dilemma in F1

F1 world began wake up from winter sleep after Jerez tests took place in Spain. We are reading news more frequently in Twitter and web sites. All eyes are on Mercedes challenger W03, Marussia’s non-KERS but “Pat-Symondesque” revolutionary 2012 car and more significant results of Barcelona tests. I wanted to share my ideas in a few subjects with you in this silent week.

Raikkonen’s Lotus adventure

I wanted to write this subject after I heard how top Lotus guys appreciated Kimi. Recently, Gerard Lopez and Eric Boullier expressed some words about Kimi like “we feel very good with him and he clearly feels at home. He smiles a lot when he’s with us! But most importantly that says he feels more like part of the family” To speak frank, I downplay these. Yes, Lotus (the old Renault actually) was one of top teams which has more primary relationships rather than secondary and huge team spirit. However, these words made me think that they smell a bit “advert”. They are making most of Kimi in terms of his name. What Kimi thinks is more important than this for me. Let’s remember, Kimi has stated similar words when he has been at Ferrari like:

“Ferrari is a great family to me. The relationships here are warmer than Mclaren, I feel myself relaxed”

Sorry, but I am not sure if he will use same words again.

The other subject is Lotus way of Raikkonen utilization for adverts. What are these? You should have seen this Twitter. To explain every minute of Kimi, in the car, out of the car, ate a bowl of muesli, went to toilet, drinking Coke and so on… If they keep this speed, they will over-use “Public Affairs and Adverts” what Kimi hates! Kimi will get disappointed again. What has Iceman been saying? :  “The only thing I like in F1 is driving on circuit!”

Will he succeed? Yes, definitely he will succeed. We can not know the degree of succession but everyone will accept that he succeeded. I am sure that Kimi’s non-F1 experiences improved his driving more and he will make the most of these.

Caterham’s 2nd driver limbo

I have always special feelings and sympathy for Caterham F1 Team, in other words the old Team Lotus. What impressed me most were a dedicated team for success, racing with experienced drivers instead of pay-drivers and improving technical team consistently. I believe that Renault engine and KERS system, Red Bull gear box and hydrolic system will boost team performance much more than most people expect. Undoubtedly, these did not happen easily, you need money for these. But, you need also belief to spend money. This is absolutely what impresses me. However, Caterham’s 2nd driver limbo confuses me. I don’t believe (like many) that Trulli’s seat is safe though he says reverse. Heikki Kovalainen did an outstanding job in last two years what caused eradication of Trulli’s respect. I don’t think that he should stay at the team. But, neither Petrov nor Van der Garde are not the man who should replace Trulli. Petrov is an inconsistent like Trulli and Van der Garde does not have any eye-catching success anywhere. I was already quite surprised when I heard that he will drive in Jerez.

The only thing I suggest to team is differentiating themselves with honesty in F1 world where we used to meet lies frequently. If they will replace Trulli, I suggest to make them imminently, not right after expressing that Trulli’s seat is safe. (Remember what Toro Rosso did to Buemi and Alguersuari and what Renault did to Heidfeld) I don’t tolerate such an action to Trulli who is liked by everyone on and  off the track.

If he will be replaced, who is right candidate? He is neither Petrov, nor Van der Garde, nor Liuzzi, nor Heidfeld. He is definitely Rubens Barrichello!

First and second driver dilemma

This is quite sophisticated and frequently confused subject in Formula 1. In last decade, the only driver representing 1st driver tag perfectly was Michael Schumacher. Why? Because, 1st driver is not that driver leading the other side of the garage on circuit. First requirement is that 2nd driver should have to accept that the other driver is 1st driver (like Rubens did in Ferrari) Fernando Alonso and Sebastian are not 1st drivers officially. However, they lead their team mates quite dominantly, so everyone accepts this. Even the technical team create the design by thinking 1st drivers driving style. Let’s remember, due to Schumacher’s preference on oversteer tendancy, Ferrari was designing the car compatible with him. We don’t see this recently in F1 world.

I did not label Mateschitz a liar when he claimed that Webber and Vettel will start the season on an equal basis. I put Mateschitz to the most honests leauge in F1 circus. In 2010, before the last race he was asked whether Vettel will support Webber for his title chance and responded like “Let the two drivers race and what will be will be. if Alonso wins we will have been unlucky. I predict a Hollywood ending. Worst case scenario we don’t become champion? We’ll do it next year. But our philosophy stays the same because this is sport and it must remain sport” This was not a bullshit as it has been told before the race and there has been 15 points gap between Vettel and Alonso. As a result, he did what he promised and honesty won!  But, I can not say the same words for Horner and Marko…

Yes, I insist that Alonso and Massa start the season on an equal basis. I know so many people claim the reverse but if Massa wins 3 of first 6 races and puts a 40 points gap to Alonso and continue his success in European season also, Ferrari will not insist on Alonso. Remember 2008 season and remember what has happened with Massa/Raikkonen battle.  Also, if Grosjean wins over Raikkönen several times, Lotus will not insist on Raikkonen. I see the only exception in Red Bull, because there are two top guys who adore Vettel. All other teams are hungry for title and who proves to carry champion blood, they will tail behind him.

Please do not misunderstand me, in my opinion both Alonso and Raikkonen will lead teammates clearly. As will Vettel…

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